Wow, I used to be good about picking the results of football games. But no more. I’ve been terrible the first two weeks of fearless forecasting. My son Michael says I should let him pick the games. Maybe I should.
But now that I have had two weeks to gauge the local high schools, I should be better the rest of the season. I was really guessing the first two weeks – it would have been better if I had flipped a coin – but after paying close attention I think I have got it down.
I think Kingston is the best of the 2A schools in the Olympic League. They got beat by Squalicum (the third high school in Bellingham) the first week, but that is no disgrace. I lived in Whatcom County where Bellingham is and the athletic programs in that county are always going to be tough, no matter the sport. I don’t know if it’s the water or what up there, but that is just the way it is, so anytime your team plays one of them up there, whether it’s Lynden, Mount Baker, Ferndale, or any of the three Bellingham schools or anybody else, beware.
I should have known better in picking the games on Friday. I waffled in my selections on the Bremerton-Wilson game, the South Kitsap-Newport game, and the North Kitsap-Bishop Blanchet game. My first gut feeling was to go with Wilson, Newport and Bishop Blanchet. North and Bishop Blanchet are playing today in Seattle, and I wanted to go with Bishop Blanchet, but like the other two games changed my mind to be more politically correct. And that is no way to pick games.
The reason I really picked North was it’s close defeat to Archbishop Murphy, which has been a perennial state power since it opened its school doors. But last night AM got hammered by W.F. West (Chehalis) 58-24 so North’s one-point loss to AM doesn’t look so good right now.
I can’t figure out Sequim The Wolves football coach Erik Wiker is very good, and Sequim has a good hold on its high school athletic program through good community programs, so their 0-2 start has me befuddled.
River Ridge ripped Sequim Friday night 37-0 and last week River Ridge was beaten 40-0 by Timberline, which last night got smashed by Tumwater 44-0. So you figure that one out. All I know is Sequim better not play Tumwater.
If you are playing along with me that would make Tumwater a 121-point favorite over Sequim. Better for the Wolves to challenge Tumwater to a game of chess than play them in football this year.
Newport (of Bellevue) had beaten Capital 35-7 last week and that score scared me since Capital is usually pretty good (in fact you can be sure that Capital, Olympia and Tumwater are always going to be pretty good, just in case you have a chance to make a football prediction that involves one of them).
Sure enough, Olympia, one of the favorites in the 4A Narrows League, edged Capital last night, 21-6, which makes Newport look pretty good, which the Knights proved by swamping SK last night, 35-14.
I really should have known better about Bremerton. The Knights whipped up on a poor Foster team last week, 51-6, showing a lot of team speed and a sturdy defensive and offensive line.
But the Knights are very young and Wilson is a 3A school that has a tradition of producing good football teams. And the game was in Tacoma.
Never in my right mind would I have predicted, though, Wilson would have beaten Bremerton so bad, 66-9. That would put Foster on the same football footing going against Wilson as Sequim going against Tumwater. That’s a 102-point spread for Wilson over Foster. God forbid that they should play each other.
Back to my main focus, I would put Olympic, a close loss to Renton and a close win against Yelm, second to Kingston in the OL. North Kitsap probably is third, Bremerton, Klahowya and North Mason setting in the fourth through sixth spots (you pick the order), followed by Port Angeles then Sequim.
Having said that, it’s pretty obvious the OL once again is not a feared league when it comes to accessing where it stands among leagues around the state. We are isolated over here in West Sound and only have so much population in which to draw from to build a consistent league year after year.
By the way, I don’t know what has happened to Bainbridge, which got spanked by Central Kitsap last week and Kingston last night. The Spartans play in the tough Metro League and it doesn’t look good for them right now.
As for CK and SK, well to me they appear to be the top two overall teams in the area, and should be since they are also the only two 4A schools
South is the largest high school in the state with 2,448 students; Wenatchee is second at 2,109, Newport, CK and Gig Harbor are all about the same at 1,435. Marysville would have been the biggest, but it split into two high schools in 2010 – Marysville Pilchuck and Marysville Getchell, and both are 3A schools with enrollment at about 1, 278.
As to which team is better – CK or SK – I have no clue. Don’t ask me, I’m doing lousy with predictions. But if you really want to know, I think they are the same. So I predict when they meet Nov. 1 at Joe Knowles Stadium in Port Orchard the game will go into overtime and after six hours they will call the game a tie so everybody can get some sleep.
Because I have done so terrible this week at my fearless forecast, I’m nervous this Saturday morning as I await how Washington, Washington State and the Seahawks perform. I picked the Huskies and Cougars to win, and the ‘Hawks to get beat by the 49ers. So if you have time to place a bet with Las Vegas, do the exact opposite of me when laying down your money.
The good thing for me, I guess, is after this weekend I will have a clear view of just how good (or how bad) Washington, Washington State and the Seahawks are. Now if I can just not be PC with my picks, I might rise from the forecast ashes yet.
Be well pal.
Be careful out there.
Have a great day.
You are loved.